Deep Sleepers — Quarterbacks

Deep Sleepers — Quarterbacks: "

What is a sleeper, by definition?

If you go to Dictionary.com, the definition is as follows:

“Something or someone that becomes unexpectedly successful or important after a period of being unnoticed, ignored or considered unpromising or a failure.”

It’s so funny to see what other fantasy sites’ definitions of a “sleeper” is, when in reality it’s right here under our nose. For purposes of OUR fantasy football website, it’s basically a player who completely exceeds expectations from pre-season ADP (average draft position). Remember, we have MILLIONS of people playing our beloved hobby, and because of our ADP Tool at FantasyFootball.com, we have a general idea of where players are being drafted.

So, in order to accurately derive a useful “Sleeper” list, you take the average draft position of a certain player and you subtract that from where you actually believe that player should be drafted. And… walaa!!! If that number is off by 12-24 picks you have yourself a solid sleeper. If that number is off by more than 24 picks you have a deep sleeper… and that’s what I’m offering you today.

DEEP SLEEPERS!!

A look at some players I believe will have a lot more value than their early-season ADP might indicate.

QUARTERBACKS I LIKE

1. Chad Henne, Miami Dolphins — This one is tough for me to talk about because he’s a former Michigan Wolverine and it’s nearly impossible to say anything good about a “little rodent”. But it’s hard to ignore the number of QBs that school up north has placed in the NFL. Tom Brady and Brian Griese come to mind… but there are others. Henne is in the long line of former Michigan QBs who might be able to have a successful NFL career.

It appears that Bill Parcells is doing everything he can to surround his franchise QB with talent, too, starting with talented offensive linemen. Henne also has two very capable RBs in Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown, and if that wasn’t enough… they made a deal to bring Brandon Marshall into the fold. Like him or not, Marshall is a stud WR capable of catching 100+ passes per season while taking the pressure off Davone Bess and Brian Hartline.

Don’t get me wrong… I’m not expecting Henne to finish in the top 5 at the end of the year in this type of offense, but considering his ADP has him going in the middle of the 12th round (138.45 overall), I think there’s some tremendous value attached to this third-year QB. I have Henne projected for 3,375 yards and 20 TDs, which could still be a conservative figure considering the upgrades they have made on offense. If you are fortunate enough to get Henne in the 12th round, count your blessings.

2. Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia Eagles — It’s always tough to project how a QB is going to perform in the NFL when he comes from a pass-happy college system. I mean, think about it… how many Texas Tech or Houston QBs have really panned out into NFL caliber QBs? But don’t paint all former college QBs from these schools (and others like them) into a corner because it’s really not fair.

Sometimes QBs from small schools or schools that don’t necessarily meet NFL-offensive standards turn out to be very good signal-callers at the next level. You simply can’t stereotype guys based solely on where they played unless you look at each players’ mechanics and throwing motion, not to mention whether or not they have a solid QB coach helping them along to get to the point they need to be.

Kolb showed signs of brilliance last year when he filled in for the injured Donovan McNabb, starting two games in the middle of the season. In those two games Kolb completed 65% of his passes for 718 yards and 4 touchdowns. Granted, they were playing behind much of the New Orleans game and were forced to throw on nearly every down in the second half, but I still really liked what I saw from Kolb… and it’s not like he’s unfamiliar with this offense.

Kolb has a tremendous talent pool to work with, including speedy receivers DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, not to mention TE Brent Celek. Considering the offensive line has upgraded and I’m still not sold on the defense, Kolb should get plenty of chances to sling the rock around several times per game.

3. Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Admittedly, he’s more of a deep sleeper in larger leagues and/or dynasty leagues, but I still think he has some value in normal, 12-team re-drafters. Because the Bucs were so bad last year, many have overlooked the second-year QB from Kansas State… but I think that might be a mistake. Freeman may not end the season as a QB1 in the top 12, but he could surprise a few naysayers by finishing somewhere in the top 19 or 20.

Consider this… Josh Freeman’s ADP is actually larger (meaning he’s being drafted later) than Josh Johnson’s. Yes, I realize it’s early and that will eventually turn around… but even when it does, Freeman won’t be any higher than a 20th-round pick in deeper leagues. To me, that’s tremendous value.

Keep in mind, leagues that penalize for INTs will be tougher for me to justify him as a sleeper because he takes a ton of chances and will most likely end the season with close to 20 INTs… if not more. But what I like about Freeman is the fact he’s got two very talented rookie receivers to gel with, a stud TE who’s just screamin’ for more touches in 2010, and an offensive line that is getting better (though it’s not great yet).

I fully expect the defense to be a “work in progress” which means the offense should have plenty of opportunities to play “catch up” throughout the course of most games. If I could land Freeman in the 18th round, I’d be completely content.

Other Notables:

Jimmy Clausen, Carolina Panthers

Mark Sanchez, NY Jets

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions

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